Publication in Nature: Model calculates susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 variants in different countries

Date:  30/01/2025

A novel mathematical model developed under the lead of RKI researchers estimates how many individuals are susceptible to different SARS-CoV-2 variants in a particular region at a given time. The work is now published in Nature (“, DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08477-8).

Electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 (colorized).
© RKI

A SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers various immune responses, of which neutralizing antibodies can protect an individual from further infections with the virus. However, since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the virus continues to evolve and generate novel variants: These variants carry mutations that render them capable to re-infect individuals of bypassing existing immunity and neutralization by antibodies. The authors showed that whether an emerging variant could effectively spread in the population depends on the (local) infection history and the involved variants, which ultimately shaped immunity in the population. Moreover, the authors could precisely determine this spreading potential using the developed mathematical model, which integrates the genetic data of different SARS-CoV-2 variants, antibody pharmacokinetics, as well as infection history and local genomic surveillance data from different countries and regions. Thus, the researchers were not only able to precisely reconstruct historical variant dynamics in different countries – the model also helps predicting future variant dynamics in specific contexts and provides clues for vaccine design, as the authors write.